Human Population and Residential

This module tracks the human population and the area associated with human communities, hotels, campgrounds, satellite accommodations, and various recreational facilities (golf courses, ski areas, playgrounds, playing fields). The user can specify the growth of the human population, acreage and agricultural residences, satellite accommodations (hotels), campgrounds, and various recreation/tourism facilities.

Human populations can be simulated into the future based on anticipated proportional growth (for example, 1.75%/year for 3 decades, followed by 1.23% for the next 4 decades), or can be tied to annual production of natural commodities such as hydrocarbons, crops, wood harvest, or livestock (see figure below). Human sub-population classes can be tracked separately such as aboriginal and non-aboriginal.

Output variables relating to the residential sector generated by ALCES® for each time step and in each landscape and footprint type, include:

• new, existing, and reclaimed area (ha) and edge (km) for each residential type (cities, towns, acreages, agricultural farmyards);
• population dynamics tracked as either proportional growth or tied to commodity production;
  when tracking populations based on direct and indirect employment, ALCES® computes subpopulations including dependents and non-resource components of the population (see Figure 19);
• amount of area and edge within settlements including transportation, industrial, administrative, recreational, and residential;
• annual inputs including water (m3/yr), electricity (mhz/yr), fuel (m3/yr)
• annual outputs including fuel consumption (m3/yr gas or diesel), distance travelled (km/yr), forage consumption, waste production (tonne/yr)
• annual emissions (tonnes/year) of atmospheric compounds including CO2, NOX, SOX, VOC, particulates, associated with the residential sector

Table inputs

1.  Footprint and population development trajectory
- For each footprint type (Recreation, Agricultural residential, Town / city, Acreage), enter a value that modifies its growth rate.  The growth rate is multiplied by this modifier value.  For example, a value of 0.5 would reduce the growth rate by 50%; a value of 2 would double the growth rate.
- Enter a value that modifies the growth rate of the human population.  The human population growth rate is multiplied by this modifier value.  For example, a value of 0.5 would reduce the growth rate by 50%; a value of 2 would double the growth rate.
- Enter a value that modifies the initial human population size.  The initial human population size is multiplied by this modifier value.  For example, a value of 0.5 would reduce the initial human population size by 50%; a value of 2 would double the initial human population size.

2.  Initial human population metrics
- Enter the initial human population size.
- Enter the proportion (0 - 1) of the human population residing in each cover type.

3.  Average size of human residence categories
Enter the average size (ha) of each category of human residence (city / town, agricultural residence, acreage).

4.  Distribution of human growth to various landscape types and footprint types
Enter the proportion (0 - 1) of human population growth that occurs on each landscape type and footprint type (e.g., city / town, agricultural residence, acreage).

5.  Maximum recommended human density in each landscape type and footprint type
Enter the maximum recommended density of humans (number of people per km2) in each landscape type and footprint type.  If the Human density limit switch is on (up), then human population growth will cease during a simulation if this maximum recommended human density is reached in any landscape or footprint type.

6.  Average number of people per residence
For each residence type ( Recreation, Agricultural residential, Town / city, Acreage), enter the average number of people per residence.

Graphic inputs

Human population growth
Enter the growth rate of the human population during each year of the simulation period.  Values may be constant or vary during the simulation period, and may range from -5% per year (-0.05) to 5% per year (+0.05).

Town and city growth rate (area)
Enter the combined growth rate of the area occupied by towns and cities in the land base during each year of the simulation period.  Values may be constant or vary during the simulation period, and may range from 0 to 5% per year (0.05).

Agricultural residence growth rate (area)
Enter the combined growth rate of the area occupied by agricultural residences in the land base during each year of the simulation period.  Values may be constant or vary during the simulation period, and may range from 0 to 5% per year (0.05).

Acreage growth rate (area)
Enter the combined growth rate of the area occupied by acreages in the land base during each year of the simulation period.  Values may be constant or vary during the simulation period, and may range from 0 to 5% per year (0.05).

Switches

Human density limit switch
If this switch is on (up), then human population growth will cease during a simulation if this maximum recommended human density is reached in any landscape or footprint type.

Aboriginal peoples and their traditional land uses

Aboriginal features considered in ALCES include burial sites, traditional hunting/gathering areas, traditional trails, traplines (inclusive of both aboriginal and non-aboriginal peoples), and other sites of cultural importance. Each of these features can be buffered to explore relationships between protection of aboriginal features and sustainable forest harvest levels.  Forestry practices can be omitted from buffers of features important to aboriginal peoples.

Table inputs

Table 1.  Aboriginal trail networks
- Enter the length (km) of trails used by Aboriginal people in the land base at the start of the simulation period.
- Enter the width (m) of trails used by Aboriginal people in the land base.
- Enter the buffer distance on each side of a trail within which forest harvesting is not permitted.

Table 2.  Aboriginal traplines
- Enter the length (km) of traplines used by Aboriginal people in the land base at the start of the simulation period.
- Enter the width (m) of traplines used by Aboriginal people in the land base.
- Enter the buffer distance on each side of a trapline within which forest harvesting is not permitted.

Table 3.  Aboriginal burial sites
- Enter the number of Aboriginal burial sites in the land base at the start of the simulation period.
- Enter the average size (ha) of Aboriginal burial sites in the land base.
- Enter the buffer radius around Aboriginal burial sites within which iforest harvesting is not permitted.

Table 4.  Aboriginal cultural sites
- Enter the number of Aboriginal cultural sites in the land base at the start of the simulation period.
- Enter the average size (ha) of Aboriginal cultural sites in the land base.
- Enter the buffer radius around Aboriginal cultural sites within which forest harvesting is not permitted.

Table 5.  Total Aboriginal hunting and gathering area
Enter the total Aboriginal hunting and gathering area (ha).

Table 6.  Distribution of Aboriginal features on landscape types
Enter the proportion (0 - 1) of the combined Aboriginal features that occur on each landscape type.

Table 7.  Portion of Aboriginal features on forests already protected
- For each forest type, enter the proportion (0 - 1) of combined Aboriginal features that are already protected.
- For each forest type, enter "1" if Aboriginal peoples permit logging on Aboriginal features; "0" if they do not.

Switch

Switch: Aboriginal features deletion from active forest landbase
If this switch is on (up), then the area of Aboriginal features that occurs in each forest type is deleted from the active forest landbase (in which forest harvesting is permitted).