Climate Change

The effects of climate change on selected future conditions in the land base can be simulated by specifying the change in average annual temperature and precipitation during the simulation period.  Changes in inter-annual variation in temperature and precipitation may also be specified.  It is also possible to specify the relationships between changes in temperature or precipitation and the level of a climate change induced drought index.  Forecasts from regional climate models may be useful in constructing a climate change scenario in ALCES.  The simulated effects of climate change include changes in annual precipitation, annual temperature, growth and yield of forest stands, the probability of fire events, and the conversion of landscape types.

Forecasts from regional climate models defining expected future change in temperature and precipitation can be used as inputs to the ALCES climate change module.  The simulated effects of climate change include changes in annual precipitation, annual temperature, growth and yield of forest stands, the probability of fire events, and the conversion of landscape types.

The default values in each of the graphic input devices are set to no change in average ambient temperature or precipitation.  If these values are modified, the letter "U" will appear in the lower left corner of the icon, indicating user-defined values.  Clicking on the U will return to the original default equation.

Graphic inputs

Trend in average annual precipitation

• This graphic input device is used to specify temporal changes in average precipitation (in percent) in a projected future climate change scenario.  Values can range between 0 (100% reduction from initial amounts) to 2 (100% increase over initial amounts).  A trend line of 1 specified throughout the simulation period means that precipitation is to remain constant at initial levels entered in Table 1 (Panel 5).

Trend in precipitation variance

• This graphic input device is used to specify temporal changes in average variation in precipitation (in percent) in a projected future climate change scenario.  Values can range between 0 (100% reduction from initial variance) to 2 (100% increase over initial variance).  A trend line of 1 specified throughout the simulation period means that variation in precipitation is to remain constant at initial levels entered in Table 1 (Panel 5).

Change in average annual temperature

• This graphic input device is used to specify temporal changes in average ambient temperature (in degrees C) in a projected future climate change scenario.  Values can range between -5 degrees C to +5 C.  A trend line of 0 specified throughout the simulation period means that temperature is to remain constant at initial levels entered in Table 2 (Panel 5).

Change in temperature variance

• This graphic input device is used to specify temporal changes in average variation in temperature (in percent) in a projected future climate change scenario.  Values can range between 0 (100% reduction from initial variance) to 2 (100% increase over initial variance).  A trend line of 1 specified throughout the simulation period means that variation in temperature is to remain constant at initial levels entered in Table 2 (Panel 5).

Relationship between change in precipitation and climate change index

• This graphic input device relates changes in precipitation to a climate change induced drought index. For example, increasing levels of precipitation are likely to reduce a drought index whereas declining precipitation would increase the index. The User has the capacity to define the shape and scale of these relationships.

Relationship between change in temperature and climate change index

• This graphic input device relates changes in temperature to a climate change induced drought index. For example, increasing temperatures are likely to increase a drought index whereas declining temperature would decrease the index. The User has the capacity to define the shape and scale of these relationships.