ALCES Mapper

ALCES Mapper™ is the companion mapping application for the ALCES® model. ALCES Mapper generates spatially explicit maps illustrating the plausible location and extent of future land use features based on ALCES® outputs. ALCES Mapper is capable of generating maps of landscape types (hardwood, softwood, fens, bogs, agricultural, etc), footprint types (pipelines, cut blocks, well-sites, roads, etc.), ages associated with the landscape or footprint types, and numerous other derived indicators (e.g., caribou habitat-based population performance, petroleum production, wildlife habitat quality, water demand, etc.). ALCES Mapper is best deployed within large regional planning areas to examine strategic regional issues.

ALCES Mapper requires two primary inputs: 1) Geographic Information System (GIS) data quantifying the study area landscape type and footprint type composition and spatial distribution, and 2) output data from the ALCES® model. The same GIS data that is summarized for the purpose of populating the ALCES® model is used by ALCES Mapper. ALCES® output data is provided in the form of a structured input table with multiple worksheets. ALCES Mapper divides the study area into grid cells of user-defined size, and then calculates the landscape and footprint composition within each cell. The rates and proportions of land use features, landscape types, natural disturbances, commodity production and other variables as reported by ALCES® are then applied to each cell, tracked, and displayed spatially by ALCES Mapper.

The frequency and reporting interval of the Mapper outputs (i.e. time-steps) is user-defined. Additionally, ALCES Mapper allows users to specify the location (i.e., where specified land use footprints can or cannot occur) and the pattern of growth and reclamation of land use features based on the rates and amounts generated from ALCES®. This provides flexibility to build landscapes with different ‘rules’ (e.g., anchored, contagious, and stamped), and is useful for visualizing different zoning or resource utilization strategies. The ability to define logical land use feature locations ensures that footprints like oilsand surface mines and in-situ oilsand development are constrained within areas of economic bitumen deposits. Similarly, industrial footprints can be excluded from protected or culturally significant areas. For example, protected areas, economic in-situ bitumen deposits, economic bitumen surface mine deposits, towns/cities, and White Zone can be used as primary spatial map themes used to either direct or constrain the location of future land use features.

While ALCES Mapper portrays plausible future landscapes, it is not a deterministic model. Due to the stochastic effects of natural disturbances and uncertain nature of future land uses, ALCES Mapper can be run many times and the exact same result will not be produced. However, major patterns remain consistent between model runs, and it is these general patterns that help inform planners. For this reason, ALCES Mapper output is generally presented as more than one time-series map sequences.